Communists Likely to Win Re-election in Moldova
April 5th, 2009 at 12:08 pm - by Blake Allen
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On April 5th, 2009 voters in the former Soviet Republic of Moldova will head to the polls to elect their new Parliament marking the end of Vladimir Voronin’s presidency who has served two terms since taking office on April 7th, 2001. Upon its formation, the new Moldovan parliament will elect the country’s new president.
While the Moldovan constitution prohibits Voronin from serving a third term he is expected to remain a dominant figure in Moldovan politics and many analysts predict him to be chosen as the new Moldovan Speaker of Parliament.
Mr. Voronin’s Party, the PCRM (Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova) has held an eight-year majority in parliament and remains one of the few ruling communist parties in the world.
With recent surveys showing the PCRM polling at 36% it is likely Moldovan communists will retain power in Moldova over other, more centre-left political parties polling who poll only 22%. Only 3 of these liberal-leaning parties are expected to pass the 6% needed to win seats in parliament.
While these same surveys also show a full third of Moldovans reportedly “undecided” it is unlikely that the PCRM will lose power in the Moldovan elections which only expect 20,000 - 30,000 of the country’s 560,000 to vote.
The election is following a bus explosion in the Moldovan breakaway Republic of Transnistria which damaged a major, 30 year old Soviet-era pipeline which has cut off some of the gas supply to various Eastern European nations (specifically Bulgaria and the Balkans).
The Moldovan Economy
The PCRM has hailed Vladimir Voronin for having returned the Republic of Moldova to a state of stability and economic growth which has been achieved through a series of tax cuts as well as measures put into place by the government to encourage economic growth.
However, despite the recent successes of its economy Moldova still caries the title of “Europe’s Poorest Country” with a nominal GDP of $4.395 billion ($1,297 per capita) according to the IMF.
The World Bank also reports that roughly a third of the Moldovan GDP is dependent on remittances from the hundreds of migrant Moldovan’s who are currently working outside Moldova, a higher proportion than any other nation in the world.
The average monthly income in Moldova is $2,500 Moldovan lei, roughly $243 American dollars, with Russia contributing an extra $15 dollars to every pensioner in the region.
Transnistria
This election is likely to be largely ignored in the Moldovan breakaway Republic of Transnistria.
The Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic (Transnistria), located along the eastern Moldovan border with Ukraine declared its independence in 1990 claiming the Moldovan land along the eastern bank of the Dniester river as well as the city of Bendery and following the War of Transnistria in 1992, which claimed the lives of roughly 1,500 people, became a self-governing territory.
Transnistria has its own currency, the Transnistrian ruble, along with its own constitution, coat of arms, national anthem, parliament, police, postal system, military, and flag.
Despite all of this along with its strong ties to Russia (which has yet to recognize the territory as an independent nation), Transistria remains recognized only by the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia who are themselves both only recognized by Russia and Nicaragua, and the Republic of Moldova still claims ownership of the region.
Russia and the European Union
Vladimir Voronin has especially been hailed for greatly improving Moldovan relations with the European Union while not damaging its relations with Russia.
Having been accepted under the European Union’s “neighbourhood policy” Moldova receives grants as well as economic assistance from the Union but has no guarantee of potential membership into the EU.
In 2006 the European Union proceeded with an “economic blockade” of Transnistria, Russia retaliated by imposing its own embargo on Moldovan wine, one of the largest economies in Moldova and severely damaging the country’s economy.
Despite this Moldova remains more politically tied to Russia than any other country with many of its industrial enterprises in the nation being Russian owned.
